The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

August Feeder Cattle (Daily) 

Today, August Feeder Cattle closed at 319.125, gaining some 5.400 on the day.  New contract highs were set today, with the peak at 319.450.  The short-term moving averages on this chart, the 5- and 10-day averages (blue/red), crossed into a bullish configuration on June 30^th. Currently those averages are at 311.480 and 308.382, are both below the market price and inclined toward higher prices. The 50-day average (green, 302.983) hasn’t been touched since April 9^th.  The 100- and 200-day averages (grey and purple) are also well below the market and neither has been touched over the life of this contract.  Overall, this trend appears very strong to my eye. There is a red trendline drawn on this chart, across the March-May highs, that may offer potential resistance near the 320.500 mark, or so.  You might notice that served as resistance last month.  We’ll have to see if that holds true for July.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) indicate an overbought status, but it’s only been for the past 3 sessions.  Looking back over the chart, it seems to me that the market “likes” to stay that way for longer periods of time.    Momentum appears to be strongly bullish and I don’t see anything on my technical indicators to change that.  From the fundamental side, imports of feeders from Mexico resumed this week.  However, those import locations will be phased in through September, and only 1 has re-opened this week.  (Douglas. AZ)  I’m not convinced that the resumption of -some- imports will have an immediate or lasting effect.  Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long positions in the futures. If you’re looking for an entry point, perhaps consider the pervious contract high at 314.200, although that’s about 5.000 lower than the close today and a 5.000 pull back may signal a reversal.  There are weekly pivot points (not pictured) near 317.750 and 315.900 that are a bit closer to the market and they may act as support if challenged.  Hedgers may do well to do nothing, as the trend is still up and still very strong.  If you’re the type of operator that buys potloads of feeder cattle from time to time, you may do well to consider buying August 325.000 Call options to help defray the cost of your next load of cattle.   If you need suggestions for different strategies or strike prices, please give me a call or drop me an email.

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

August Feeder Cattle (Weekly)

So far this week, August Feeder Cattle have gained 9.625, adding to the gains of 5.450 and 1.600 over the last two weeks. That’s a 16.675 gain over the past three weeks, or since that last red bar on the chart.  You might notice that the 5- and 10-week moving averages have been in a bullish configuration since the 2^nd week of March.  The 5-week average (blue, 309.080) has acted as good support since that bullish crossover, as the weekly chart has only closed under that average 4 times, by my count.  This week it’s acted as support again, with yesterday’s low testing that level again. The 10-week (red, 305.265) has also apparently been solid support, having been tested 4 times since the 1^st week in March.  You have to go back to the 1^st week in February to find two weekly closes below that average, and those slightly bearish periods didn’t last very long.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are overbought on this weekly chart, but you might see that this trend has kept the market overbought for most of the life of that indicator.  Currently, I believe the weekly stochastic is still pointing toward higher prices.   New contract highs have been set already this week, and I would still expect another extension higher.  The overhead red trendline suggest resistance is perhaps close (roughly 320.500) but the trend is still strong.  Extend the line out beyond the chart and that projects to about 325.000 near the end of July.

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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